The European Commission’s impact assessment for the EU’s 2040 climate target marks a significant step forward in Europe’s efforts to mitigate climate change. However, out of this analysis it becomes evident that a higher level of ambition is essential across most sectors to meet and exceed the EU's climate goals.

This assessment, addressing the gaps and pressing needs across sectors, forms a critical roadmap for achieving a sustainable, resilient, and equitable future for the European Union.

The EU’s climate targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 aim to sharply reduce GHG emissions, yet they fall short of equitable pathways compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The current 2030 target of a 55% reduction in emissions lags behind the IPCC recommendation of a 57% cut, underscoring an ambition gap, and so without taking into account the EU’s fair share in global climate efforts. 

By 2040, the EU’s proposed 90% emissions reduction aligns more closely with IPCC’s recommendation but still overlooks the additional reductions needed to reflect the EU’s historical emissions and fair share of the global effort, as well as the additional cumulative emissions resulting from a lack of ambition in the period to 2030.

For 2050, the EU’s climate-neutrality target is broadly compatible with the IPCC’s directive to reach global net-zero emissions by mid-century, yet cumulative emissions resulting from lower targets in earlier years create challenges for the world to stay within a 1.5°C compatible greenhouse gas budget. Accelerated emission cuts across high-impact sectors - energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and LULUCF - are critical to closing these gaps.

Aligning the EU’s targets with 1.5°C pathways will require strengthened policies, faster transitions, and equitable climate action that acknowledges both present responsibilities and future imperatives. By committing fully to these ambitions, the EU can set a powerful example in the global transition to a sustainable, resilient, and climate-safe future.